Patriots vs. Jets on Monday Night: Back the Double-Digit Home Dog?

The New England Patriots head to the Meadowlands to take on the New York Jets. Both teams have not seen success in 2020 as both teams continue to fall closer to the number one pick. The Patriots have not looked the same since Tom Brady departed and currently sit at 2-5 on the season.

The Jets are looking to join the 2018 Browns and the 2008 Lions as the only teams to go 0-16 in a single season. New York’s point differential is historically bad and will probably not get better the way this team has played.

Now, they find themselves as double-digit home dogs against a Patriots team that has not won a game since September 27. Can the Jets at least keep this one competitive tonight?

Monday Night Odds


Patriots -10



Money Line:

Patriots -435

Matchup Breakdown

This definitely isn’t a Monday night matchup that anyone is particularly thrilled with. When looking at data from Football Outsiders, both the Patriots and Jets rank in the bottom seven of team efficiency. New England is 27th (24th offenses, 27th defense), and New York is 32nd (32nd offense, 26th defense).

Neither side is particularly good at anything, and the Patriots and Jets rank in the bottom half on seconds per play, making the under a bit more enticing in this matchup. The Jets will also be without quarterback Sam Darnold on leaving Joe Flacco under center Monday night.

Flacco has been bad this season, completing just over 50% of his passes and has thrown six interceptions in his last 10 games. Cam Newton has not been great at quarterback for the Patriots, so it’s not like New England has this crazy edge. This season, Newton is completing 66% of his passes and has a 2:7 TD-INT ratio. However, he is arguably the teams best rusher with just under 300 yards on the ground and six touchdowns.

With the limited number of weapons New England has and the production this team has seen out of Newton, they could stick to the ground game. The Jets will most likely try and keep the ball moving on the ground. New England has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so there is a chance New York has some offensive life pounding the rock with 37-year-old Frank Gore.

Obviously, Bill Belichick is a much better coach than Adam Gase, so the Patriots have the edge in the coaching booth and should help on Monday night. Belichick has always been great at taking away a team’s best asset. Whatever that is with the Jets, Belichick will be able to limit the Jets.

Monday Night Best Bet

This matchup is now seeing two key numbers pop on the board with the Jets at +10 and the under up to 42.5, as of writing. My original thought was to take the Jets with the points with a potential ugly Monday night, but now I’m am siding with the under since it has steamed over the key number of 42.

Both teams are bad and have bad offenses. The Jets and Patriots should try to move the ball on the ground, keeping the clock moving and having points at a premium. I lean with the Jets, but my money will be on the under in tonight’s matchup.

Under 42.5